The Fed’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Capital Plan Review (CapPR) stress scenarios depict a severe recession that, although unlikely, the largest U.S. banks must now account for in their capital planning process. The bank holding companies’ ability to maintain adequate capital reserves, while managing the risk levels of growing portfolios are key to staying within the stress test parameters and meeting liquidity requirements.
While each banks’ portfolios will perform differently, as a whole, the delinquency performance of major products such as Auto, Bankcard and Mortgage continues to perform well. Here is a comparison between the latest quarter results and two years ago from the Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.
Although not a clear indication of how well a bank will perform against the hypothetical scenario of the stress tests, measures such as Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Exposure at Default to indicate a bank’s risk may be dramatically improved from just a few years ago given recent delinquency trends in core portfolios.
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